After a slow 2023, the Orlando housing market is heating up. Due in part to high interest rates and low inventory, Orlando’s real estate market last year saw a 20% decrease in home sales from 2022. But the tide seems to be turning.
In this article, we’ll examine how the Orlando real estate market performed in 2023 and where it’s headed as we enter the second half of 2024.
Key Takeaways
- After a slow 2023, the Orlando housing market is showing signs of recovery with increased home inventory and a slight decrease in mortgage rates.
- High mortgage rates and low inventory led to a 20% decrease in home sales in 2023. Low inventory, exacerbated by a growing population, and high mortgage rates made homeownership less accessible.
- By May 2024, the home inventory in Orlando had nearly doubled, and mortgage rates slightly decreased, contributing to a more favorable market environment. Additionally, the median home sale price increased by over 8%, indicating a rising demand.
- Orlando’s economy has rebounded significantly since the pandemic, with a low unemployment rate and rising household incomes, which are expected to boost the real estate market further.
Orlando Real Estate Market Performance in 2023
The Orlando real estate market’s lackluster performance last year is due primarily to two main factors: low inventory and high mortgage rates.
Low inventory
According to the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association State of the Market Report, the Orlando home inventory in May 2023 was a bleak 5,149, constituting only about 1.63 months of supply (6 months is considered optimal). This low inventory put pressure on the market, pricing out buyers, especially those looking to enter the market for the first time. It also didn’t help that Orlando’s population grew over 5% in just three years (from 2020-2023) due partly to migration from other parts of the country during the pandemic. This population increase put additional pressure on Orlando’s already stressed housing market.
High mortgage rates
Moreover, the average mortgage rate for central Floridians in May 2023 was 6.62%, a 25.4% increase from the previous year. This means that a $400,000 home at a fixed, 30-year 2.5% mortgage rate, which many could get during the height of the pandemic in 2020, with 10% down, would cost approximately $1,400 per month (not including taxes and insurance). Compare that to the same home but with a 6.62% mortgage rate, and that monthly bill increases to $2,300, a 64% increase. It’s no wonder why people were waiting on the sidelines.
Fortunately for Orlandians, this pressure on the market was starting to ease.
Orlando Real Estate Market Forecast for 2024
A lot can happen in just one year—and from May 2023 to May 2024, a lot happened in the Orlando real estate market.
Orlando’s home inventory doubles
In May 2024, Orlando’s home inventory grew to 10,282, almost double its level the previous year, constituting a 3.5-month supply, the highest since 2016. This increased inventory is due in large part to new home construction. Orlando boasts the number four city in the country for new homes per 100,000 people. Although supply chain disruptions have slowed the rate of new home construction, you can expect the rate of new homes to increase dramatically as building materials become more available (and less expensive).
Mortgage rates trend downward
At the same time, the average mortgage rate for central Floridians dropped from 6.62% to 6.58%, a 0.6% decrease from the previous year. While this mortgage rate is still relatively high, it is trending in the right direction. Moreover, many expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the coming months, potentially reducing mortgage rates even more.
Home sale costs increase by over 8%
According to Redfin, the median sale price for homes in Orlando in May 2024 was $407,440, an 8.7% increase from the previous year. While a higher sale price may exclude some buyers, Orlando remains a relatively affordable city to buy real estate, with the median sale price for homes in the U.S. sitting at $420,800.
Favorable economic factors
Additionally, the Orlando economy has made a striking comeback since the height of the pandemic. Orlando’s unemployment rate went from 23.4% in May 2020 to 2.9% in April 2024, more than a percentage point lower than the national unemployment rate. Not only are more Orlandians working, but they are earning more, too. While the median household income took a dive in the aftermath of the pandemic, it has surpassed pre-pandemic levels by 2022 and continues to trend upward. These encouraging economic factors will undoubtedly help more people get off the sidelines and into the real estate market.
Average Home Value by Orlando Neighborhood
| Location | Average Home Value | YOY Change |
| Orlando | $388,798 | +5.1% |
| Audubon Park | $482,778 | +8.6% |
| Baldwin Park | $771,619 | +6.8% |
| Lancaster Park | $834,601 | +8.2% |
| Lawsona-Fern Creek | $499,603 | +5.2% |
| Orwin Manor | $793,693 | +8.0% |
| Delaney Park | $745,057 | +4.7% |
| College Park | $523,080 | +7.0% |
| Lake Eola Heights | $481,649 | +5.3% |
| Lake Davis-Greenwood | $460,840 | +6.0% |
| Colonialtown North | $461,782 | +6.0% |
| Colonialtown South | $485,521 | +5.5% |
| Park Lake-Highland | $619,107 | +6.1% |
| South Eola | $481,320 | +3.3% |
| Dover Shores West | $461,611 | +6.8% |
| LaVina | $462,592 | +3.6% |
July 2024
What Does This Mean for Florida Real Estate Agents?
As more homes come onto the market and mortgage rates continue to come down, more people will be able to enter the Orlando real estate market, making now a great time to get in on the action and become a licensed real estate agent.
Want to learn more about how to take advantage of Orlando’s hot real estate market? Gold Coast School’s Orlando Real Estate course outlines what you need to know to make 2024 your year!
Sources:
“Building and Construction Industry Face Supply Chain Disruptions, but There Is Hope.” Greenbuzz. Accessed July 5, 2024. https://greenbuzz.gatech.edu/news/building-and-construction-industry-face-supply-chain-disruptions-there-hope#:~:text=Over%20the%20past%20year%20and,ranging%20from%20contractors%20to%20insurers.
“Orlando Metro Area Population 1950-2024.” MacroTrends. Accessed July 5, 2024. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23091/orlando/population#:~:text=The%20metro%20area%20population%20of,a%201.93%25%20increase%20from%202020.
“Orlando Real Estate Housing Market Narrative.” Orlando Real Estate Housing Market Narrative | Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association. Accessed July 5, 2024. https://www.orlandorealtors.org/housingmarketnarrative#:~:text=2023%20Annual%20Market%20Recap&text=Overall%20sales%20in%202023%20decreased,to%2028%2C022%20sales%20in%202022.
Warmoth, Justin. “Central Florida’s Housing Market Expected to Improve in 2024. Here’s Why.” WKMG, February 5, 2024. https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2024/02/05/central-floridas-housing-market-expected-to-improve-in-2024-heres-why/#:~:text=Home%20sales%20in%20Orlando%20region,in%202023%20compared%20to%202022&text=ORLANDO%2C%20Fla.,outlook%20will%20improve%20in%202024.